Since its October high last year, the stock of innerwear major Page Industries has been on a downtrend, shedding a little over 30 per cent of its market value. Higher competitive intensity, muted volumes, pressure on margins, and rich valuations have led to downgrades for the stock. The October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) performance was lower than the Street's expectations - both on volumes/sales and margins.
Even as most of its large-cap pharmaceutical peers have struggled to stay above water on the returns front, Zydus Lifesciences has been one of the big outperformers within the sector over the past year with a return of over 30 per cent. The gains have come on the back of multiple triggers such as the scaling up of new product launches in the US market, clearance for its Moraiya (Gujarat) facility and steady performance in the domestic market. Though it has been the top pharma gainer in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23), brokerages continue to maintain their 'buy' stance, given the strong visibility in the US market.
Abbott India outperformed the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) with a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 23 per cent in February. The domestic market grew at a robust 20 per cent on a low base, primarily led by volume growth and price hikes. Abbott continued to outperform the sector in the anti-diabetic space with a growth of 20 per cent and key brands such as Thyronorm (hypothyroidism), biliary agent Udiliv, insulin Ryzodeg posted robust growth.
Though the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) is expected to end with record sales for the Indian real estate sector, valuations are at multi-year lows on worries of rising interest rates hurting volumes. Most brokerages, however, expect listed realty majors to get support, given their comfortable leverage, steady rise in location-agnostic demand, and falling inventory levels. According to real estate data and analytics platform PropEquity, the sector grossed sales of 149 million square feet (msf) in the top seven cities in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) of FY23 - the highest quarterly sales in the past decade.
With raw material prices rising sequentially in Q4 FY23, margins of fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) companies could witness pressure as they refrain from hiking prices and demand remains soft. Transition to a new regulatory regime-fans moved to new BEE standards from January 1-poses additional risk for firms. Business depends on volume trends in summer for key sub-segments, which account for a significant chunk of the sector's overall sales pie.
The S&P BSE Auto Index has been one of the biggest outperformers among sectoral indices over the past year with returns of 26 per cent. By comparison, the benchmarks - the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 and the S&P BSE Sensex - managed about 6-8 per cent during this period. Improving demand, falling raw material costs, and rising product realisations, led by the premiumisation of portfolios, have led to a revision of growth estimates and upgrades by domestic brokerages.
The stock of Aditya Birla Fashion Retail is down 10 per cent from its February high. Even as the revenue performance of the apparel retail major in the October-December quarter's for the 2022-23 financial year (Q3FY23) was better than expected, the company saw brokerage downgrades, given the weak operating performance and the pressure on margins. This the second consecutive quarter of margin miss despite strong traction on the sales front.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
In addition to the negative sentiment as a consequence of changes announced in the Union Budget 2023-24 concerning tax treatment for debt repayment distribution, concerns about hiring slowdown and its leasing impact, as well as higher interest rates, could blight the sector in the near term.
The country's largest listed footwear brand by market capitalisation, Metro Brands, posted better than expected December quarter results for the 2022-23 financial year (FY23), riding on store expansion and strong same store sales (SSS) growth. Profitability too remained robust, even as net profit growth was marginally lower. The company, which retails across the Metro, Mochi, Walkway, Crocs and Fitflop formats, posted a 24 per cent growth in revenues over Q3FY22.
Riding on an improved show across parameters, TVS Motor (TVS) outperformed larger two-wheeler peers Hero MotoCorp (Hero) and Bajaj Auto (Bajaj) during the September (Q2 of FY23) quarter. The Chennai-based firm, which has the most-diversified portfolio among two-wheeler majors, posted a 28 per cent jump in revenues. This compares to 18 per cent growth for Bajaj Auto and single-digit uptick for Hero MotoCorp.
TVS Motor Company, on Wednesday, overtook Hero MotoCorp in terms of market value to become the sixth-largest automobile company on market capitalisation. he former's m-cap now stands at Rs 51,681 crore to the latter's Rs 50,951 crore. Bajaj Auto, with Rs 104,872 crore, is the only two-wheeler manufacturer in the top five. Shares of TVS have rallied 73 per cent this year while shares of Bajaj and Hero have risen only 3 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. While sales, net profit and market share of TVS are lower than that of Bajaj and Hero, there are multiple triggers for the company.
The two-wheeler sector has been underperforming its peers on the volumes front for over five quarters now. Even in the March quarter, Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp posted a 17-24 per cent YoY decline in volumes, the sharpest in the listed auto universe. The ongoing impact of frequent price hikes, all-time high fuel prices, and muted rural sentiment has led to the lacklustre showing by two-wheeler makers. What has aggravated the situation for two-wheeler companies, which get almost all their sales from the internal combustion engine or ICE-based units, is the traction for electric two-wheelers (EV).
Led by Trent, which hit its lifetime-high recently, apparel retailers have gained between 10 per cent and 36 per cent over the past three weeks. Given the network of physical stores, these stocks shall be major beneficiaries of the unlock theme, with most states doing away with Covid restrictions. Amid improving footfall, analysts expect the sector to post double-digit growth in FY23.
There are multiple near-term worries for the stock of India's largest listed consumer company, Hindustan Unilever (HUL). While inflationary pressures will weigh on its profitability, demand pressures - especially in the rural market - are expected to hit the firm's revenues. This is why brokerages have cut the earnings estimates for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) by 7-10 per cent.
Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
What has hit sentiment further is a draft proposal by the government to increase vehicle insurance premiums for financial year 2022-23 (FY23). Third-party motor insurance premiums have not been increased over the last two years and if this is approved, insurance costs for specific segments could rise by a fifth. The worst impacted is the 350cc and above two-wheeler segment, where premiums are up 21 per cent. Royal Enfield (Eicher Motor) is the market leader in the segment. The premiums in the 150-350cc two-wheeler category are also being inc
Tata Motors' UK-based subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover or JLR, reported a muted operational performance in the December quarter of financial year 2021-22 (Q3FY22). The luxury carmaker saw a 33 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in wholesale volumes to just under 70,000 units in Q3, against estimates that were 16 per cent higher. The drop in despatches to dealers was on account of shortage in semiconductors.
A weak margin outlook in the near term and lack of fresh triggers may keep the Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) stock under pressure. The stock, after tepid September quarter (Q2) results and marginal downward revision in earnings estimates, declined 3.5 per cent in trade on Friday. Though consolidated sales of the company, which owns the Goodknight and Cinthol brands, grew 8.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY), its operating profit declined because of the sharp contraction in margins.
Despite unprecedented levels of uncertainty in Samvat 2077, investors have little to complain about on the returns front. The BSE Sensex delivered returns of 38 per cent in this period, while the Nifty registered a return of over 40 per cent. As is the case in bull markets, companies in the small- and mid-capitalisation basket outperformed the benchmarks, with returns almost twice those of frontliners.
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